Success Story: Expert system for probability and severity of network incidents

NCC presenting the success story

NCC Spain

Client/user profile:

Company focused on the development, technification and digitalization of electricity grids, applying innovation as the main axis of the electricity distribution business to improve the quality of supply and contribute to the evolution of the electricity system.


Increased efficiency in resource management.

Key points before agreeing on project:

  • Data confidentiality
  • IPR
  • Efficient implementation
  • Secured infrastructure access
  • Migration to client infrastructure

Technical/scientific Challenge:

The challenge was:

  • to identify the main meteorological variables that influence incidents in distribution networks.
  • to develop reliable demand and generation forecasting models.
  • to develop a system that collects, processes, and integrates the information from the various data sources identified.
  • to develop incident forecasting algorithms based on historical data Integrate the different algorithms developed for each type of data into a single incident probability result.
  • to identify the severity and repercussions of incidents on the network.
  • to develop a graphic system for geo-referencing and visualizing incidents and risks.


The development of an expert system which, based on weather forecast information, distribution network information, demand and generation forecasts, and significant social variables, calculates probability indices for the occurrence of incidents and restrictions in the distribution network and, based on information on the affected market and relevant events, the severity and social impact of said incidents.


Improve the quality of supply and reduce the social/media impact of incidents and network restrictions.

This project has received funding from the European High-Performance Computing Joint Undertaking (JU) under grant agreement No 951732. The JU receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program and Germany, Bulgaria, Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, Republic of North Macedonia, Iceland, Montenegro